Longhorn Trimmed
Today Microsoft released some more concrete information on their plans for
Windows "Longhorn". You can read the press
release over on Microsoft's site, but I suggest you fasten your seatbelt
first; the spin on this one is pretty severe. Let me enumerate the salient
points without the hype:
- Broad availability for the Longhorn client operating system in 2006
- WinFS removed from Longhorn; to be in beta when Longhorn client is
released
- WinFX (Avalon + Indigo) decoupled from Longhorn. Will be available for
Windows XP and Windows Server 2003 in 2006
- "Anticipated availability" for Longhorn server in 2007
So, what's it all mean, Mr. Wizard? Well, in the first place, it's very clear
that Microsoft is throwing features overboard in order to make some kind of
reasonable ship date for the next client. The most substantial of these is
WinFS; long-time observers will recall that this technology was first promised
as ObjectFS in "Cairo" a decade ago. That may be some sort of vaporware record.
Also, by separating WinFX (Avalon being the new display technologies, Indigo a
communications subsystem) from Longhorn, Microsoft has created some wiggle room
if ship schedules get even tougher. They could, for example, ship rudimentary
forms of these technologies in Longhorn and then brush them up in a service pack
that coordinates with the anticipated shipment for XP/2003. Personally, I
wouldn't put too much stock in that 2006 date for WinFX either; Microsoft's
record of hitting ship dates is not great.
Second, there are gonna be some upset developers out there. Microsoft handed
out pre-alpha bits are the PDC about a year ago, and got everyone pumped up
about Avalon, Indigo, and WinFS as the fundamental "pillars" of Longhorn (along
with a fourth, "basic" pillar that covers all the miscellaneous improvements).
Since then, there's been a steady stream of hype in MSDN Magazine and elsewhere,
designed to convince people that WinFS is real technology that will be useable
soon. Now it's slipping backwards.
Finally, I'm skeptical of the plan to make WinFX available on older operating
systems. At first blush this sounds like a way for applications that use WinFX
to have a much wider reach of potential client machines. But I fear this is
going to run up against the limitations of the installed hardware base. It seems
pretty clear that Avalon is going to require a hot-shot video card that you
won't find in many existing computers. As for Indigo, well, there are certainly
some people excited about the latest Web Services standards, but on the
whole I still think that's a niche market. For the most part, WinFX is going
to be about creating exciting new user interfaces - which will require
exciting new hardware no matter what operating system support is available.
Does it really matter? Well, for many of us, this announcement is just a
confirmation of something we already knew: Microsoft has an incredible amount of
trouble coming up with plans for a Windows release that they can actually follow
through with. If you flash back to PCD 2001, you may remember Bill Gates
confirming Longhorn as a Windows client release for 2003 that would contain many
new graphics and peer-to-peer technologies. But what's three years of slip
between friends?